Arvind Iyengar

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Dark Horses at the World Cup

Ireland really tested Bangladesh in
their group match at the Shere Bangla National Stadium. Their strong performance
should not come as that much of a surprise if you've been following the

The predictor is based on 100 simulations of the
entire World Cup, and it includes a total of 4900 simulated matches! If you
look at the various outcomes in these simulations, you get a sense of which
sides are best positioned to go far in the tournament. Across the 100
simulations, India made the final 40 times indicating a 40% probability of the
Men in Blue playing at Wankhede on April 2nd (you can see how keeping a base of
100 simulations makes these probability calculations easier!). Of the less
heralded teams in the tournament, i.e. the teams seeded between 10 and 14, Ireland is the
only team that has a greater than 1% chance of making the finals (albeit still a
small one). They have a 4% chance of lasting till the end as indicated in the
table below.



That coupled with the numbers of the team strength
indices tells you Ireland
are strongest double digit seed in the tournament.



Bangladesh, England
and the West Indies are the three big teams fighting for the two remaining
spots in Group B, assuming India
and South Africa
go through. Ireland
though is the dark horse to watch out for and they could pull off an upset or

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