• Like
Blogger

# ‘Recent Form’ analysis: the changes during the World Cup

The simulation programs are the cornerstone
of the Tournament Simulation and Daily Predictor analysis. If the simulation
program platform stands on four legs, one of the legs is the Recent Form, which
plays a very important part in the way the simulation results go. In an earlier
article, I had already looked at the way the RF analysis is being done. In this
article I will explain how specific World Cup performances are weighted
strongly, viz., 20%, to have a profound influence on the simulation results.

To explain this, I will look at four
players: a batsman and bowler who have hit the zone during the initial phase of
round-robin matches, and a batsman and bowler who have not done so well. This
will explain clearly how this important measure works.

First the table of AB de Villiers who has blazed away from the beginning.

de
Villiers A.B     Saf Career 113 14  4436 39.96

W C
25 ( 44)

W C
134 ( 98)  RF      RpI
10   490 49.00

W C
107 (105)

2010
11 ( 12)  RF-Wted RpI  10
543 54.32

2010
3 (  5)

2010  16 ( 20)

2010
8 ( 13)

2010
76 ( 69)

2010
61 ( 72)

2010
49 ( 70)

de Villiers has a career RpI value of around
40. His performances over the past 10 matches, including three in the World
Cup, has been so good that he has a RF-average of 49.00, 22% above his career
value. His way-out performances in the World Cup so far have pushed up even
these RF values and now get a RF-RpI of 54.3, which is 35% above his career
figures. This is used in the simulation programs along with the career figures.

Next the table of Shahid Afridi who has been the bowler of the tournament so far.

Shahid
Afridi       Pak Career    306 10418
34.05

W C
5 for 23

W C
4 for 34   RF      Avg
20   383  19.15

W C
5 for 16

2010 0 for 51   RF-Wted Avg 22.8  398
17.43

2010 2 for 55

2010 1 for 42

2010 1 for 45

2010 0 for  7

2010 2 for 59

2010 0 for 51

Shahid Afridi has a fairly moderate career Bowling
Average value of 34.05. His performances over the past 10 matches, including the
World Cup, have been so good that he has a RF-bowling average of 19.15, nearly
55% of his career value. His way-out performances in the World Cup so far have
pushed up even these RF values and he now gets a RF-Avge of 17.43, which is
twice as good as his career figure.

Now the table of Ahmed Shehzad of Pakistan who has performed way below par in the
three games as a batsman. Very few batsmen have failed in all three innings, it
must be said.

Ahmed
1   320 26.67

W C
12 ( 23)

W C
13 ( 23)  RF      RpI
10   276 27.60

W C
1 ( 18)

2010
6 ( 12)  RF-Wted RpI  10
250 25.02

2010 115 (109)

2010
42 ( 42)

2010
0 (  3)

2010
25 ( 16)

2009
19 ( 52)

2009
43 ( 81)

view of his relative successes in New Zealand. However his triple failures have
pushed his RpI value to around 25, about 10% below his RF values.

Anderson J.M        Eng Career    190
5887  30.98

W C
2 for 16

W C
1 for 49   RF      Avg
11   546  49.63

W C
1 for 91

W C
0 for 72   RF-Wted Avg 11.8  592
50.13

2010 3 for 48

2010 1 for 91

2010 1 for 42

2010 2 for 57

2010 0 for 26

2010 0 for 54

James
Anderson
's career average is around 30. His recent
form has been quite poor and this value is 49.63. His indifferent WC form has
pushed this still beyond 50. But for the reverse-swinging effort at Chennai,
this would have gone still higher.

Let me add that it was indeed quite
difficult to find bowlers who have had terrible World Cups so far.

I am confident that these four descriptive
tables give an insight into the very important measure of Recent Form.